Its latest UK Market Intelligence Report highlights the negative impact that COVID-19’s second wave and Brexit uncertainty is having on recovery in the construction sector, with a V-shaped recovery no longer likely. 

The report recommends that clients must act now to avoid a disrupted start to 2021. Regardless of whether the UK secures a deal or not in the coming days, Turner & Townsend warns of the risk of import delays and cost increases as a new trading relationship with the EU beds in. 

The reports calls for clients to map out and scrutinise detailed risk management plans and other provisions for business continuity in the final weeks and days of 2020.  

This includes understanding critical EU dependencies on construction programmes – assessing how reliant the supply chain is on labour from overseas, and also what proportion of construction materials and components are sourced from the EU. Tariffs and checks imposed on EU imports will push up costs and cause border delays, while securing labour supply may require greater preparation and forethought to comply with new overseas recruiting and immigration policies. Clients will need to agree how these risks are shared with their supply chain and ‘wargame’ different scenarios to identify potential pinch points.   

While the winter resurgence of COVID-19 and renewed lockdown restrictions are placing further strain on demand, the impacts of the end of the transition period could offset some of the deflationary pressures on pricing. Turner & Townsend forecasts negative tender price inflation of -1.0% for real estate in 2021, as growing competition in the occupier and commercial sectors puts pressure on margins. In infrastructure, government spending on defence, transportation and roadbuilding is seeing more secure pipelines of work, and tender prices are forecast to increase 1.5% next year.  

Richie Hales, director, infrastructure lead for Scotland, Turner & Townsend, said: “Infrastructure has remained resilient in Scotland through a pretty challenging time for the sector. With recent increased investment indications from both UK and Scottish Governments, the forward look is positive. However with Brexit, the Scottish elections and a tail to the COVID-19 impact, 2021 is not without its difficulties. At this uncertain time it’s important that clients continue to review risk management plans and strategies – working closely with the supply chain to mitigate potential impacts.”