Demand for plumbing and heating professionals remains steady, with 44% of businesses feeling confident or very confident about the year ahead (this has fallen from 50% in Q4 and 54% in Q3). The data suggests that stability in trading conditions persist, but there are underlying concerns about future financial prospects on the back of the underwhelming Spring Statement and ongoing global economic uncertainty.

The report also revealed that 47% of plumbing and heating businesses now hold a pessimistic view of the UK economy, a significant increase in just six months, up from 19% in Q3 2024. This sharp rise reflects growing concern over rising employer costs, persistent workforce shortages, rising material prices and the lack of a clear economic strategy from government.

Fiona Hodgson, chief executive of the Plumbing and Heating Federation, said: “Confidence in the economy has taken a real hit. Our members are managing current workloads but are increasingly uncertain about what lies ahead. The Spring Statement failed to provide the reassurance or clarity needed to plan with confidence.

“We urgently need an economic reset - one which places value on workforce development, ensures prompt and fair payment across the supply chain, and unlocks opportunity for small firms to grow and invest.”

Despite the gloomy outlook from a UK-wide economic perspective, the plumbing and heating profession showed resilience in terms of trading performance - marked by stable demand and opportunities. Some 47% of businesses indicated that workloads for the next six months are in line with expectations. A further 30% reported stronger-than-expected forward bookings, while 22% anticipate reduced demand. This reflected a strong, but slightly more cautious short-term outlook than in Q4. In terms of profitability, 58% of business reported the same, or increased, profit margins. However, 39% of businesses experienced a decline, an 11% rise from Q4.

The Q1 2025 State of Trade report also highlighted additional challenges influencing current sentiment across the profession:

• Only 28% of businesses expect to increase staffing in the next six months
• 69% report low availability of skilled professionals in their area
• Only 22% are likely to recruit an apprentice in the coming year

These pressures, combined with political and economic uncertainty, have led to the overall State of Trade moving from ‘Stable to Strong’ in Q4 2024 to ‘Stable’ in Q1 2025, a subtle but important change in the profession’s collective outlook.

Ms Hodgson added: “Our profession remains stable, and I commend our members for weathering the current economic climate to remain profitable despite the financial pressures that are being felt across the construction sector. They have been resilient and highly adaptable; but resilience is not infinite.

“If we’re to safeguard long-term strength across the plumbing and heating profession, we need joined-up action from all governments to reduce volatility, support business confidence and develop the workforce of the future.”

The State of Trade survey was conducted between 24 and 31 March 2025, with responses sought from more than 700 plumbing and heating member businesses and more than 50 affiliate and partner organisations of the Federation.