Scotland and London lag behind rest of UK’s commercial property recovery

Kingshill Commercial Park in Aberdeen
Kingshill Commercial Park in Aberdeen

The commercial property markets in Scotland and London are lagging behind the rest of the UK which is showing some signs of a return to a more positive mood post the EU vote, a survey has found.

The Q3 UK Commercial Market Survey 2016 from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) revealed that occupier demand edged up in most of the UK as a whole in the third quarter, with 12 per cent more respondents reporting a rise in demand at an all sector level (compared with neutral reading in Q2).

This modest improvement is mostly driven by the industrial sector, with 27 per cent more respondents reporting a rise in demand for industrial property across the UK. The demand for office space meanwhile, remains flat.



However, Scotland saw the sharpest drop in demand across the country, with 24 per cent more chartered surveyors reporting a fall.

Demand also fell in London for the second quarter in a row, with offices seeing the most significant dip (22 per cent more respondents reported seeing a fall in demand for London office space).

Anecdotal evidence suggests that political uncertainty is still having an effect on both these markets. As such, inducements are a little more visible than they have been of late in an effort to tempt occupiers to take up space in some parts of both locations – especially so in the office sector.

Central London and Scotland were also the only two areas in which near-term rent expectations failed to move into positive territory.



Meanwhile, foreign investment inquiries were down in Scotland for a second quarter.

Simon Rubinsohn
Simon Rubinsohn

Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist, said: “The negative mood in the Q2 survey reflected the fact that it was conducted in the immediate aftermath of the referendum. The latest results suggest that the commercial market has subsequently settled down which is broadly consistent with much of the other macro news flow that has emerged over the past few months. In particular the rebound in our occupier demand indicator suggests that for at least the time being, the UK economy is proving relatively resilient.

“Interestingly, the feedback we have received was noticeably more cautious in Scotland and parts of London but despite this, the RICS results do suggest that the drop in the pound is encouraging foreign investors to show interest in the market particularly in the capital.”


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