Scottish builders lean towards ‘Remain’ in EU as industry confidence dips again

Almost one in three Scottish building employers think leaving the EU would have a negative impact on their business compared to 8 per cent who think the impact would be positive.

More than 40 per cent think the impact would be neutral while a further 20 per cent remain unsure what the impact would be.

These are some of the headline findings of the latest Scottish Construction Monitor a quarterly survey of the membership of the Scottish Building Federation, Scotland’s leading construction employers’ federation comprising hundreds of member companies of all sizes located throughout the country.

The latest survey also showed a further drop in construction employers’ confidence about the future outlook for their business compared to the final quarter of 2015.

This is now the eleventh consecutive quarter in which a positive overall confidence rating has been recorded for the industry. However, the rating is now only marginally positive overall having slipped by a further five points this quarter to stand at PLUS 3.

In anticipation of the forthcoming referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union, the latest survey also asked a series of questions about Scottish construction companies’ level of exposure to the European Union in terms of labour, supplies and exports. 23 per cent said they currently employ labour from other EU countries compared to 77 per cent who do not.

One third said they procure goods and services from other EU countries while two thirds said they do not. Only 6 per cent of businesses responding to the survey said they export to other EU countries while 94 per cent do not.

SBF members were also asked to judge the likely impact on their business if the UK were to leave the European Union. The results were not decisive either way with the most popular answer being “neutral” and more than one in five saying “don’t know”. However, roughly four times as many thought the impact of Brexit on their business would be negative as those who thought the UK leaving the EU would be positive for their business.

Scottish Building Federation managing director Vaughan Hart said: “The responses we’ve received to the questions related to the EU referendum suggest there is limited interest in or enthusiasm for the European Union amongst construction employers. The results also show that the industry’s level of exposure to the European Union is far more limited than might be the case for certain other industries. The most significant relationship building companies have with other EU countries appears to be through their supply chain.

“But out of the minority of building companies responding who think the UK leaving the EU would have an impact on their business, four times as many think this impact would be negative as those who think Brexit would be good for their business.

“More generally, a further drop in industry confidence this quarter adds weight to the view that 2016 looks set to be a challenging year for the Scottish economy.

Mr Hart added: “For its part, SBF will not involve itself in the forthcoming referendum campaign. But I would observe that it is perhaps this growing sense of uncertainty about the economic outlook which explains why, on balance, our members are leaning marginally towards a preference for remaining in the European Union when the referendum takes place in June.”